On the effectiveness of socio-economic forecasting long-term trends of the Soviet period
https://doi.org/10.28995/2073-6401-2022-4-65-75
Abstract
The article presents the results of socio-economic studies for the first half of the 20th century, revealing the actual state of industrial production, revealing socially significant challenges in the economic sphere. It shows various directions in the search for their scenario solutions, based on the use of various classifications of forecasts for the socio-economic development of the Soviet country, carried out by S.G. Strumilin. The predictions are compared with the realities in various fields in order to try to take a fresh look at the viability and relevance of the proposed long-term trends in the historical and current context taking into account modern requirements.
About the Author
G. A. Tsvetkova
Russian State University for the Humanities
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Galina A. Tsvetkova, Dr. of Sci. (Sociology), professor
bld. 6, Miusskaya Square, Moscow, 125047
References
1. Krasova E.V. (2021) “Views of soviet economist S.G. Strumilin from the modern human capital theory position”, Azimuth of Scientific Research: Economics and Administration, vol. 10, no. 2 (35), pp. 210–214.
2. Strumilin, S.G. (1925a), “To the methodology of the study of wages and labor productivity”, Planovoe hozyaistvo [Planned economy], no. 8, pp. 27–62.
3. Strumilin, S.G. (1925b), “On the issue of capital in the USSR”, Planovoe hozyaistvo [Planned economy], no. 2, pp. 40–65.
4. Strumilin, S.G. (1930), Ocherki sovetskoi ekonomiki: resursy i perspektivy [Essays on the Soviet economy: Resources and prospects], 2nd ed., rev. and add., Gos. izd-vo, Moscow, Russia.
5. Strumilin, S.G. (1964), Izbrannye proizvedeniya v pyati tomakh. T. 3. Problemy ekonomiki truda [Selected works in five volumes. Vol. 3. Issues of labor economics], Nauka, Moscow, Russia.
6. Strumilin, S.G. (1959), Rabochii den’ i kommunizm [The working day and communism], Profizdat, Moscow, Russia.
7. Strumilin, S.G. (1982), Problemy ekonomiki truda [Issues of labor economics], Nauka, Moscow, Russia.
Review
For citations:
Tsvetkova G.A. On the effectiveness of socio-economic forecasting long-term trends of the Soviet period. RSUH/RGGU BULLETIN. Series Philosophy. Social Studies. Art Studies. 2022;(4):65-75. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.28995/2073-6401-2022-4-65-75
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